Following the recent roundtable on “How Belgium Would Evolve in a Post-Quantum Era,” Martin Schmalzried, representing the views of his consultancy, YoumanE.T., reflects on the discussions and shares his insights as a futurist into the profound societal and philosophical implications of quantum computing.
Introduction
Quantum computing stands at the frontier of technological innovation, promising to revolutionize industries, economies, and societies worldwide. As Belgium prepares to engage in this quantum era through the roundtable organized by the Societal Impact Workgroup within Quantum Circle, it is essential to delve deeper than the surface-level opportunities and challenges.
Martin Schmalzried, a futurist from YoumanE.T., brings a unique perspective to this discussion. He urges us to reconsider not only how we implement quantum technologies but also how we understand reality, consciousness, and the very fabric of our society in the context of these advancements.
Quantum Technology: Bridging Consciousness and Computation
At its core, quantum computing is more than a computational leap; it is a gateway to understanding the intricate relationship between technology and human consciousness. Traditional computing operates within the confines of classical physics, but quantum computing introduces principles like superposition and entanglement, which inherently involve the observer’s role.
Martin Schmalzried suggests that quantum technology cannot be used by people who remain stuck in a mechanistic, materialist, linear cause/effect view of the world. Drawing an analogy, he shares the example of a priest encountering a locomotive during the Industrial Revolution. The priest, should he view the world through the lens of monotheism, might perceive the locomotive as a demonic machine powered by the fires of hell, unable to comprehend its mechanics, purpose or use it appropriately.
Similarly, if we approach quantum computing strictly through materialistic assumptions, we limit our understanding and potential applications. Quantum physicists often adopt a “shut up and calculate” mentality, as David Mermin used to say, focusing on computations without grappling with the philosophical implications of the observer effect and the nature of reality. To fully harness quantum computing, we must digest and integrate what quantum physics reveals about our world.
Challenging the “Everything Else Being Equal” Illusion
In projecting the future impact of quantum computing, there’s a common but flawed assumption that other societal factors — political systems, economic models, labor markets — will remain unchanged. Martin Schmalzried challenges this notion, emphasizing that quantum computing will interact with and influence various technologies and systems, such as artificial intelligence (AI), blockchain, and beyond.
For example, the integration of quantum computing with AI could lead to unprecedented advancements in data analysis, pattern recognition, and predictive modeling. However, without re-evaluating our societal frameworks, these technological synergies might exacerbate existing problems or create new ethical dilemmas.
Reassessing the Job Market and Economic Structures
Anthropologist David Graeber introduced the concept of “bullshit jobs,” highlighting roles that exist primarily to keep people occupied within the current economic system. Schmalzried echoes this sentiment, arguing that society often keeps individuals artificially busy to maintain economic cycles of money creation, circulation, and destruction.
Quantum computing should not be deployed to perpetuate this cycle or to address only the symptoms of deeper societal issues. For instance, using quantum algorithms to devise sophisticated tax evasion strategies while simultaneously employing the technology to detect tax fraud is a misallocation of resources. Instead, quantum computing could help us address root causes, such as reimagining financial and economic systems to eliminate the problems themselves.
Societal Risks: From Surveillance to Control
One of the significant concerns with quantum technology is its potential to enable enhanced surveillance and control mechanisms. The observer effect in quantum mechanics raises pertinent questions about who “collapses the quantum state” in societal terms — essentially, who holds the power to observe and influence outcomes.
Quantum computing could facilitate:
- Coordinated Human Activity: Optimizing communications, finance, and market simulations.
- Predictive Analytics: Anticipating human behavior, which could be misused for intrusive surveillance.
- Complex Problem Solving: Advancing technologies like self-driving cars, battery optimization, and personalized medicine.
- Encryption and Decryption: Revolutionizing data security, but also potentially enabling unprecedented data breaches.
Schmalzried cautions against a future where quantum technology leads to an Orwellian society, exemplified by systems like social credit scoring. In such scenarios, individuals are monitored, and their behaviors are controlled or manipulated, undermining personal freedoms and autonomy.
Rethinking Responsibility and Ethical Frameworks
Current systems often operate under the assumption of 100% personal responsibility, ignoring environmental and systemic influences on individual behavior. For example, people may face higher insurance premiums for health issues linked to lifestyle choices, without acknowledging factors like socio-economic status or targeted advertising that promote unhealthy habits.
Quantum computing could be leveraged to identify correlations between environmental factors and individual outcomes. This approach shifts some responsibility to corporations or entities contributing to societal issues. For instance:
- Public Health: Holding companies accountable for pollution that leads to health problems, rather than penalizing individuals.
- Financial Systems: Recognizing that increasing interest rates for at-risk borrowers can actually heighten their default risk, suggesting a need for systemic change rather than individual blame, through more thorough creditworthiness checks which increase interest rates in case of “higher risk”.
The Self-Fulfilling Prophecy of Quantum Predictions
In quantum mechanics, observation can influence outcomes — a concept that translates metaphorically to societal predictions. Schmalzried warns that using quantum computing to predict future events may inadvertently contribute to their realization.
For example, predicting climate related catastrophes on the basis of a selection of data points and observations grounded in linear cause/effect measurements, could lead to collapsing possible future states of the climate to the ones “observed” through the predictions issued by the quantum computers themselves. In essence, quantum computing might give us the ability to “observe” a specific future probable timeline, which becomes more likely by the act of being observed. This highlights the importance of cautious interpretation and application of predictive analytics, ensuring that we do not create negative outcomes through our attempts to foresee and prevent them.
Global Collaboration Over National Competition
Schmalzried emphasizes that approaching quantum technology from a purely nationalistic perspective is flawed. A global “quantum race” fosters competition over collaboration, potentially leading to a zero-sum game where countries seek to outmaneuver each other technologically.
Quantum computing’s benefits — and risks — are inherently global. International cooperation is crucial to:
- Preventing Misuse: Establishing ethical standards and regulations that transcend borders.
- Maximizing Benefits: Sharing knowledge and resources to tackle global challenges like climate change and pandemics.
- Avoiding Conflict: Reducing the risk of technological arms races that could destabilize international relations.
Privacy, Data Security, and Decentralization
The power of quantum computing poses a threat to current encryption methods, potentially compromising data security. However, Schmalzried points out that the core issue lies in centralized data storage models.
He advocates for:
- Decentralized Cloud Architectures: Utilizing quantum-resistant cryptographic keys to enhance security.
- Empowering Individuals: Giving people control over their data, aligning with principles like the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR).
- Reducing Vulnerabilities: Moving away from centralized systems that are attractive targets for breaches.
Reevaluating Positive and Negative Scenarios
Common narratives around quantum computing often present skewed perspectives. Negative scenarios typically focus on missing out on technological advancements or falling behind in a competitive landscape. Schmalzried argues that this overlooks more profound societal risks, such as:
- Ethical Dilemmas: The potential for increased surveillance and loss of privacy.
- Social Inequities: Widening gaps between those who can access and benefit from quantum technologies and those who cannot.
- Behavioral Manipulation: The misuse of predictive capabilities to influence or control populations.
Positive scenarios should not only highlight technological breakthroughs but also consider how these advancements enhance human experiences and societal well-being.
Public Perception and Trust in Quantum Advancements
Public skepticism towards technological progress is growing, especially when benefits appear skewed towards corporations rather than individuals. Schmalzried notes that promising “better drugs” through quantum computing might be met with cynicism, given instances like the opioid crisis where pharmaceutical advancements led to public harm.
Building trust requires:
- Transparency: Clearly communicating the purposes, benefits, and risks of quantum technologies.
- Ethical Practices: Ensuring that developments prioritize public good over profit.
- Inclusive Dialogue: Engaging diverse stakeholders in conversations about technological futures.
Enhancing Human Experience vs. Constricting It
Ultimately, Schmalzried posits that the most critical criterion for any technology is whether it expands or constricts the human experience. Quantum computing holds the potential to:
- Expand Knowledge: Unlocking new understanding in fields like medicine, environmental science, and cosmology.
- Promote Equity: Providing tools to address systemic issues and improve quality of life globally.
- Foster Connection: Enabling more profound interactions between individuals and between humans and technology.
Conversely, without careful consideration, it could also:
- Limit Freedoms: Through enhanced surveillance and control mechanisms.
- Exacerbate Inequalities: By concentrating power and resources among a select few.
- Manipulate Behaviors: Using predictive analytics in ways that infringe on autonomy.
Conclusion
As Belgium prepares for the quantum era, Martin Schmalzried’s insights urge us to look beyond technological capabilities and consider the societal and philosophical dimensions of quantum computing. Embracing quantum technology requires a paradigm shift — a willingness to rethink our assumptions about reality, responsibility, and the role of technology in our lives.
By fostering global collaboration, reimagining societal structures, and prioritizing ethical considerations, we can harness quantum computing to enhance the human experience. The future of quantum technology depends not just on scientific breakthroughs but on our collective ability to align these advancements with the values of equity, freedom, and shared prosperity.
Martin Schmalzried represents YoumanE.T., a consultancy focused on futurism and the societal impacts of emerging technologies. His perspectives aim to stimulate thoughtful dialogue and inspire collaborative approaches to the challenges and opportunities presented by quantum computing.
